Factors Determining the Probability for Irregular Central American Migrants to Reside in the United States

Contenido principal del artículo

David Richard Ravaux
Magin Zúñiga Estrada

Resumen

This article aims to study the factors that have favored the irregular entry and residence in the United States of migrants from the Northern Triangle of Central America during the period 2016-2019. The probabilities of success were estimated using data from Mexico’s Encuesta sobre Migración en la Frontera Sur (Southern Border Migration Survey), and a binomial logistic regression model was run to test the four hypotheses posed around the factors that determine the success of migrants in that journey. The results show that individual characteristics such as socio-demographic traits (country of origin, gender, age, education level), English language proficiency, possession of network capital, and migrants’ personal decisions significantly determine whether or not they will succeed in reaching and residing in the United States.

Detalles del artículo

Cómo citar
Ravaux, D. R., & Zúñiga Estrada, M. (2025). Factors Determining the Probability for Irregular Central American Migrants to Reside in the United States. Frontera Norte, 37. https://doi.org/10.33679/rfn.v1i1.2379
Sección
Artículos

Citas

American Civil Liberties Union of New Mexico (ACLU-NM). (n.d.). Know your rights in the 100-mile border zone. https://www.aclu-nm.org/en/know-your-rights/know-your-rights-100-mile-border-zone

Anguita Olmedo, C., & Sampó C. (2021). The case of migrant women from the Central American Northern Triangle: How to prevent exploitation and violence during the crossing. Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional, 64 (2), e005. https://doi.org/10.1590/0034-7329202100205

Anikin, V. A., Lezhnina, Y. P., Mareeva, S. V., & Tikhonovа, N. N. (2017, December 25). Social stratification by life chances: Evidence from Russia [Higher School of Economics Research Paper no. BRP 80/SOC/2017]. National Research University. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3093022

Beine, M., Khoudour D., & Tarvainen, J. (2021). Can targeted interventions mitigate the adverse drivers of irregular migration and forced displacement? [Development Futures Series Working Papers]. United Nations Development Programme. https://doi.org/10.18356/30053307-26

Beittel, J. (2022, June 7). Mexico: Organized crime and drug trafficking organizations [R41576]. Congressional Research Service. https://sgp.fas.org/crs/row/R41576.pdf

Belloni, M. (2022, December 6). Risk in context: Decision-making in irregular and mixed migration. In C. Horwood, B. Frouws, & R. Forin, Mixed Migration Review 2022 (pp. 89-94). Mixed Migration Center. https://mixedmigration.org/articles/risk-in-context-decision-making-in-irregular-and-mixed-migration/

Bermúdez Lobera, J., Días Ferraro, M. R., & Osorno Velázquez, R. del C. (2020). Morir en el camino: fallecimientos de personas migrantes en México. Rutas. Estudios sobre Movilidad y Migración Internacional, 1 (2), 8-25. http://www.politicamigratoria.gob.mx/work/models/PoliticaMigratoria/CEM/Investigacion/Rutas/Rutas02.pdf

Buehn, A., & Eichler, S. (2013). Determinants of illegal Mexican immigration into the US southern border states. Eastern Economic Journal, 39 (4), 464-492. https://doi.org/10.1057/eej.2012.24

Carriquiry, A., & Majmundar, M. (Eds.). (2013). Options for estimating illegal entries at the U.S.-Mexico border. Panel on survey options for estimating the flow of unauthorized crossings at the U.S.-Mexican border. The National Academies Press. https://nap.nationalacademies.org/catalog/13498/options-for-estimating-illegal-entries-at-the-us-mexico-border

Czaika, M., Bijak, J., & Prike, T. (2021). Migration decision-making and its key dimensions. The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, 697 (1), 15-31. https://doi.org/10.1177/00027162211052233

Dhanireddy, P. (2014). Factors influencing the settlement of illegal immigrants within the United States [Unpublished manuscript]. Washington State University-School of Economic Sciences. https://www.academia.edu/73391585/Factors_Influencing_the_Settlement_of_Illegal_Immigrants_within_the_United_States

Días Ferraro, M. R., Calderón San Martín, M. de los A., Bermúdez Lobera, J., & Cortés Rosas, L. A. (2020). Caracterización de los flujos financieros asociados al tráfico ilícito de personas migrantes provenientes del Triángulo Norte de Centroamérica. Contextos, 1 (2). Secretaría de Gobernación-UPMRIP. http://www.politicamigratoria.gob.mx/work/models/PoliticaMigratoria/CEM/Publicaciones/Revistas/Contextos/Contextos02.pdf

Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC). (2018). Atlas of migration in Northern Central America (LC/PUB.2018/23). United Nations. https://repositorio.cepal.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/69d2c09c-c95d-4d0c-b759-ecf6f397f7e3/content

El Colegio de la Frontera Norte (EL COLEF), Unidad de Política Migratoria, Registro e Identidad de Personas (UPMRIP), Consejo Nacional de Población (CONAPO), Consejo Nacional para Prevenir la Discriminación (CONAPRED), Secretaría del Trabajo y Previsión Social (STPS), Secretaría de Relaciones Exteriores (SRE), & Secretaría de Bienestar (BIENESTAR). (2016). Encuesta sobre Migración en la Frontera Sur de México [Database]. https://www.colef.mx/emif/basescuestionarios.html

El Colegio de la Frontera Norte (EL COLEF), Unidad de Política Migratoria, Registro e Identidad de Personas (UPMRIP), Consejo Nacional de Población (CONAPO), Consejo Nacional para Prevenir la Discriminación (CONAPRED), Secretaría del Trabajo y Previsión Social (STPS), Secretaría de Relaciones Exteriores (SRE), & Secretaría de Bienestar (BIENESTAR). (2017). Encuesta sobre Migración en la Frontera Sur de México [Database]. https://www.colef.mx/emif/basescuestionarios.html

El Colegio de la Frontera Norte (EL COLEF), Unidad de Política Migratoria, Registro e Identidad de Personas (UPMRIP), Consejo Nacional de Población (CONAPO), Consejo Nacional para Prevenir la Discriminación (CONAPRED), Secretaría del Trabajo y Previsión Social (STPS), Secretaría de Relaciones Exteriores (SRE), & Secretaría de Bienestar (BIENESTAR). (2018). Encuesta sobre Migración en la Frontera Sur de México [Database]. https://www.colef.mx/emif/basescuestionarios.html

El Colegio de la Frontera Norte (EL COLEF), Unidad de Política Migratoria, Registro e Identidad de Personas (UPMRIP), Consejo Nacional de Población (CONAPO), Consejo Nacional para Prevenir la Discriminación (CONAPRED), Secretaría del Trabajo y Previsión Social (STPS), Secretaría de Relaciones Exteriores (SRE), & Secretaría de Bienestar (BIENESTAR). (2019). Encuesta sobre Migración en la Frontera Sur de México [Database]. https://www.colef.mx/emif/basescuestionarios.html

Epstein, G. S. (2008). Herd and network effects in migration decision-making. Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies, 34 (4), 567-583. https://doi.org/10.1080/13691830801961597

Greenfield, V. A., Nuñez-Neto, B., Mitch, I., Chang, J. C., & Etienne, R. (2019). Human smuggling and associated revenues: What do or can we know about routes from Central America to the United States? Homeland Security Operational Analysis Center; RAND Corporation. . https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RR2800/RR2852/RAND_RR2852.pdf

Haberkorn, G. (1981). The migration decision-making process: Some social-psychological considerations. In G. F. De Jong, & R. W. Gardner (Eds.), Migration decision making: multidisciplinary approaches to microlevel studies in developed and developing countries (pp. 252-280). Pergamon Policy Studies.

Hagan, J. M. (1998). Social networks, gender, and immigrant incorporation: Resources and constraints. American Sociological Review, 63 (1), 55-67. https://doi.org/10.2307/2657477

Hernández-León, R. (2005). The migration industry in the Mexico-U.S. migratory system. UCLA: California Center for Population Research. https://www.diplomatie.gouv.fr/IMG/pdf/migrationindustry_mexico.pdf

Hernández-León, R., & Sandoval Hernández, E. (2014, July 13-19). The industry of migrant mobility: Bastard institutions and infrastructures in the eastern and western migratory corridors of the U.S.-Mexico border [Conference]. XVIII ISA World Congress of Sociology, Yokohama, Japan. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/268081937_The_Industry_of_Migrant_Mobility_Bastard_Institutions_and_Infrastructures_in_the_Eastern_and_Western_Migratory_Corridors_of_the_US-Mexico_Border

Hoekstra, M., & Orozco-Aleman S. (2021). Illegal immigration: The Trump effect [Working Paper, no.28909]. National Bureau of Economic Research. https://www.nber.org/papers/w28909

Hughes, E. C. (1994). Bastard institutions. In L.A. Coser (Ed.), Everett C. Hughes: On work, race, and the sociological imagination (pp. 192-199). The University of Chicago Press.

International Organization for Migration (IOM). (2011). Glossary on migration. https://publications.iom.int/system/files/pdf/iml_34_glossary.pdf

International Organization for Migration (IOM). (2019). Exploring the links, between enhancing regular pathways and discouraging irregular migration. https://publications.iom.int/system/files/pdf/exploring_the_links_2019.pdf

Izcara-Palacios, S. P. (2012). Violencia contra inmigrantes en Tamaulipas. European Review of Latin American and Caribbean Studies, 93, 3-24. https://doi.org/10.18352/erlacs.8361

Izcara-Palacios, S. P. (2023). Cárteles de la droga y esclavitud sexual en México de mujeres migrantes centroamericanas. Estudios Fronterizos, 24 (e136), 1-23. https://doi.org/10.21670/ref.2325136

Kuhner, G. (2011). La violencia contra las mujeres migrantes en tránsito por México. DFensor. Revista de Derechos Humanos, 6, 19-26. https://corteidh.or.cr/tablas/r26820.pdf

LaGory, M., Fitzpatrick, K., & Ritchey, F. (2001). Life chances and choices: Assessing quality of life among the homeless. The Sociological Quarterly, 42 (4), 633-651. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1533-8525.2001.tb01783.x

Leyva-Flores, R., Infante, C., Gutierrez, J. P., Quintino-Perez, F., Gómez-Saldivar, M., & Torres-Robles, C. (2019). Migrants in transit through Mexico to the US: Experiences with violence and related factors, 2009-2015. PLoS ONE, 14 (8), 1-16. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0220775

Liefbroer, A. C., & Zoutewelle-Terovan, M. (2021). Social background and adult socio-demographic outcomes in a cross-national comparative perspective: An introduction. In A. C. Liefbroer, & M. Zoutewelle-Terovan (Eds.), Social background and the demographic life course: Cross-national comparisons (pp. 1-16). Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-67345-1_1

Martínez de la Peña, M., & Bermúdez Lobera, J. (2018) Dinámicas laborales en la frontera México-Guatemala. Movilidades, 3, 8-25. http://www.politicamigratoria.gob.mx/work/models/PoliticaMigratoria/CEM/movilidades3/ga04/movno3.pdf

Massey, D. S., Arango, J., Hugo, G., Kouaouci, A., Pellegrino, A., & Taylor, J. E. (1993). Theories of international migration: A review and appraisal. Population and Development Review, 19 (3), 431-466. https://doi.org/10.2307/2938462

Massey, D. S., Durand, J., & Malone, N. (2002). Beyond smoke and mirrors: Mexican immigration in an era of economic integration. Russell Sage Foundation.

Massey, D. S., Durand, J., & Pren, K. A. (2016). Why border enforcement backfired. American Journal of Sociology, 121(5), 1557-1600. https://doi.org/10.1086/684200

Massey, D. S., Goldring, L., & Durand, J. (1994). Continuities in transnational migration: An analysis of nineteen Mexican communities. American Journal of Sociology, 99 (6), 1492-1533. https://doi.org/10.1086/230452

McKenzie, D., Gibson, J., & Stillman, S. (2013). A land of milk and honey with streets paved with gold: Do emigrants have over-optimistic expectations about incomes abroad? Journal of Development Economics, 102, 116-127, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2012.01.001

Menjívar, C. (2000). Fragmented ties: Salvadoran immigrant networks in America. University of California Press.

Mescoli, E. (2013). Towards the elsewhere: Discourses on migration and mobility practices between Morocco and Italy. Identities, 21 (3), 290-304. https://doi.org/10.1080/1070289X.2013.828614

Mines, R. (1981). Developing a community tradition of migration: A field study in rural Zacatecas, Mexico and California settlement areas [Monographs in U.S.-Mexican Studies no. 3]. https://escholarship.org/content/qt72n33714/qt72n33714.pdf

Missing Migrants Project. (2020). 75,706 missing migrants since 2014 [Database]. IOM Global Migration Data Analysis Centre. https://missingmigrants.iom.int/data

Morris, N., & Kloppe-Santamaría, G. (2022, November 15). The many, varied violences behind the Central American exodus. IPI Global Observatory. https://theglobalobservatory.org/2022/11/migrants-violence-central-america-exodus/

Nájera Aguirre, N. (2016). El complejo estudio de la actual migración en tránsito por México: Actores, temáticas y circunstancias. Migraciones Internacionales, 8 (30), 255-266. https://doi.org/10.17428/rmi.v8i3.622

Papadovassilakis, A. (2022, February 4th). Masacre de migrantes en México vinculada a red de tráfico ilícito en Guatemala. Insight Crime. https://insightcrime.org/es/noticias/masacre-migrantes-mexico-vinculada-red-trafico-ilicito-guatemala/

Passel, J. S., & D’Vera, C. (2019, May 23). U.S. unauthorized immigrants are more proficient in English, more educated than a decade ago. Pew Research Center. https://pewrsr.ch/45bpOl5

Portes, A., & Sensenbrenner, J. (1993). Embeddedness and immigration: Notes on the social determinants of economic action. American Journal of Sociology, 98 (6), 1320-1350. https://doi.org/10.1086/230191

Reichert, J. S. (1979). The migrant syndrome: An analysis of U.S. migration and its impact on a rural Mexican town [Doctoral dissertation, unpublished]. Princeton University.

Riaño, J. (2021, June 1st). Cruzar el Río Grande, el peligroso trayecto antes de llegar a Estados Unidos. France 24. https://www.france24.com/es/programas/migrantes/20210601-cruzar-rio-grande-peligroso-trayecto-estados-unidos

Robertson, L. (2018, April 6th). The stats on border apprehensions. FactCheck.org https://www.factcheck.org/2018/04/the-stats-on-border-apprehensions/

Schultz, U. (2013). ‘There it will be better…’: Southern Sudanese in Khartoum imagining a new ‘home’ away from ‘home.’ Identities. Global Studies in Culture and Power, 21 (3), 305-319. https://doi.org/10.1080/1070289X.2013.829772

Serra Mingot, E., & Mazzucato, V. (2018). Providing social protection to mobile populations: Symbiotic relationships between migrants and welfare institutions. Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies, 44 (13), 2127-2143. https://doi.org/10.1080/1369183X.2018.1429900

Silver, H. (2007). The process of social exclusion: The dynamics of an evolving concept [CPRC Working Paper no. 95]. Brown University Providence. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/Delivery.cfm/SSRN_ID1629282_code1382430.pdf?abstractid=1629282&mirid=1

Singer, A., & Massey D. S. (1998), The social process of undocumented border crossing among Mexican migrants. International Migration Review, 32 (3), 561-592. https://doi.org/10.1177/019791839803200301

Sohn, H., Pebley, A. R, Landrian Gonzalez, A., & Goldman, N. (2023). Deportations and departures: Undocumented Mexican immigrants’ return migration during three presidential administrations. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 120 (9). https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2212184120

Thompson, M. (2017). Migration decision-making: A geographical imaginations approach. Area, 49, 77-84. https://doi.org/10.1111/area.12292

United Nations. (1998). Recommendations on statistics of international migration. Revision 1 (ST/ESA/STAT/SER.M/58/Rev.1). Department of Economic and Social Affairs. https://unstats.un.org/unsd/publication/seriesm/seriesm_58rev1e.pdf

United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC). (2020). Country: Mexico illicit financial flows from the smuggling of migrants [Infographic]. https://www.unodc.org/documents/data-and-analysis/IFF/1_Mexico_-_IFFs_from_Smuggling_of_Migrants.pdf

United State Customs and Border Protection (U.S. CBP). (2008). Maritime domain awareness. https://web.archive.org/web/20091017000918/http://www.cbp.gov/xp/cgov/border_security/maritime_domain/maritime_awareness.xml

Weber, M. (1958). From Max Weber: Essays in sociology. Oxford University. https://dn790003.ca.archive.org/0/items/frommaxweberessa00webe/frommaxweberessa00webe.pdf

Wellman, B., & Wortley, S. (1990). Different strokes from different folks: Community ties and social support. American Journal of Sociology, 96 (3), 558-588. https://doi.org/10.1086/229572

Wilson, T. D. (2010). The culture of Mexican migration. Critique of Anthropology, 30 (4), 399-420. https://doi.org/10.1177/0308275X10382728

Zhan, S. (2011). What determines migrant workers’ life chances in contemporary China? Hukou, social exclusion, and the market. Modern China, 37 (3), 243-285. https://doi.org/10.1177/0097700410379482