Remesas: un análisis de cointegración para el caso de México

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Published: Jul 13, 2017
DOI: https://doi.org/10.17428/rfn.v13i26.1365

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Ramón A. Carrillo
El Colegio de la Frontera Norte

Abstract

Las transferencias de capitales (remesas) a México representan un ingreso fundamental para un gran número de familias; sin embargo, los estudios analíticos que examinan sus determinantes son escasos. En este documento se presenta un análisis de cointegración que establece una relación de largo plazo entre las remesas, el PIB de Estados Unidos, el PIB de México y el tipo de cambio real. Además de establecer que las series consideradas son cointegradas, el documento presenta un pronóstico del efecto que los cambios en el entorno macroeconómico tendrían en la cantidad de las remesas.AbstractRemittances to México represent a fundamental source of income for a large number of families. However, empirical studies analyzing their determinants are scarce. This document presents a cointegration analysis that establishes a long run relationship between remittances, México's GDP, USA's GDP and the real exchange rate. In addition, the document conducts a forecast exercise to evaluate the impact of changes in macroeconomic conditions on the flow of remittances.

Article Details

How to Cite
Carrillo, R. A. (2017). Remesas: un análisis de cointegración para el caso de México. Frontera Norte, 13(26), 31–50. https://doi.org/10.17428/rfn.v13i26.1365
Issue
Vol. 13 No. 26 (2001): julio-diciembre, 2001
Section
Papers

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