The Impact of Vacant housing on the Increase in Crime Rates (Burglaries and homicides) in Ciudad Juárez, Chihuahua (2010)

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Published: Nov 14, 2016
DOI: https://doi.org/10.17428/rfn.v27i54.581
Keywords:
vacant housing burglary homicides ciudad juárez Chihuahua

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César M. FUENTES FLORES
El Colegio de la Frontera Norte

Abstract

The crisis of uninhabited homes has generated increasing concerns about the ef fects of the rise in criminal activity in neighborhoods with a large number of vacant housing units in ciudad juárez, chihuahua. an estimated multiple regression analysis using the ordinary least squares statistical method was employed. The primary sources of data were provided by the chihuahua state Public security ministry and the xIII Housing and Population Census (inegi, 2010), from basic geostatistical areas. The study found that higher levels of uninhabited homes contribute to an increase in violent crime, particularly homicides.

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How to Cite
FUENTES FLORES, C. M. (2016). The Impact of Vacant housing on the Increase in Crime Rates (Burglaries and homicides) in Ciudad Juárez, Chihuahua (2010). Frontera Norte, 27(54), 171–196. https://doi.org/10.17428/rfn.v27i54.581
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Vol. 27 No. 54 (2015): julio-diciembre, 2015
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Papers

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Notas

Los delitos contra la propiedad se refieren a aquéllos perpetrados contra los bienes, como el robo a casa habitación.

Entre los delitos contra las personas se consideran el robo a mano armada, los secuestros, los homicidios dolosos, etcétera.

La decisión del método de estimación está basado en las características de la información usada; en este caso, es de datos espaciales que podrían presentar un grado sustancial de variación espacial, lo que podría violar el supuesto de no-estacioneidad espacial de MCO. Para detectar dicho problema potencial se usó el I de Morán, que permite verificar si los residuales del modelo global están aleatoriamente distribuidos (Bailey y Gatrell, 1995). Los resultados del I de Morán muestran que no presenta autocorrelación positiva estadísticamente significativa, por lo que se puede correr un modelo de MCO.

Es importante señalar que en países como México, las estadísticas sobre robos a casa habitación y asaltos frecuentemente están incompletas y sufren serios problemas de que se subreporte y sobrerreporte, ya que sólo 30 por ciento de los delitos son reportados al ministerio público. Sin embargo, los homicidios dolosos no muestran este problema, ya que al existir un homicidio, el ministerio público tiene que dar fe del evento, por lo que queda registrado en las estadísticas oficiales.

No se pudieron incluir otras variables de la vivienda, como valor, tipo de propiedad y nivel de ingresos, debido a que esta información no está disponible a nivel de AGEB en el XIII Censo de población y vivienda (Inegi, 2010).

En econometría, el proceso o término multicolinealidad es una situación en la que se presenta una fuerte correlación entre variables explicativas del modelo.