La estructura espacial urbana y la incidencia de accidentes de tránsito en Tijuana, Baja California (2003-2004)

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Published: May 23, 2017
DOI: https://doi.org/10.17428/rfn.v21i42.966

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César M. Fuentes F.
El Colegio de la Frontera Norte
Vladimir Hernández H.
El Colegio de la Frontera Norte

Abstract

En este artículo se analiza la relación entre la estructura espacial urbana (flujo vehicular, uso del suelo y características socioeconómicas de la población) y la incidencia de accidentes de tránsito en Tijuana, especialmente los clasificados como choques. La metodología usada es análisis espacial, con base en un modelo de regresión tipo binomial negativo. La base de datos sobre accidentes se construyó a nivel de ageb con información de la Dirección de Seguridad Públicade Tijuana y los censos de población (2000) y económico (2004), del inegi. Los resultados muestran que las variables aproximadas de flujo vehicular, uso del suelo de comercio y servicios y proporción de población con ingreso mayor a cinco salarios mínimos son estadísticamentesignificativas para explicar mayor probabilidad de accidentes de tránsito; y que, por el contrario,variables como la densidad de población (uso del suelo residencial) y el uso del suelo industrial son estadísticamente significativas para explicar menor probabilidad de accidentes. Dichos resultados pueden ser de gran ayuda en el diseño de políticas públicas que busquen reducir el número de accidentes de tránsito.Urban Spatial Structure and Frequency of TrafficAccidents in Tijuana, Baja California (2003-2004)AbstractHis article analyzes the impact of urban spatial structure (traffic flows, land-use mix, and socioeconomiccharacteristics) on the frequency of traffic accidents in Tijuana, especially those classified as car crashes. We used a spatial-analysis methodology, and we estimated a negative binomial regression model. The accident database was taken at the census-tract level, based on informationfrom Tijuana’s Dirección de Seguridad Pública (Public Safety Office), the Population Census (inegi, 2000) and the Economic Census (inegi, 2004). Findings showed that the proxy variables for traffic flows, land use by businesses and services, and the proportion of population with incomes higher than five minimum wages are statistically significant in explaining a higher frequency of traffic accidents. In contrast, variables like population density and industrial landuse are statistically significant for a lower frequency of car crashes. These findings could help to design public policies aimed at reducing the number of traffic accidents.

Article Details

How to Cite
Fuentes F., C. M., & Hernández H., V. (2017). La estructura espacial urbana y la incidencia de accidentes de tránsito en Tijuana, Baja California (2003-2004). Frontera Norte, 21(42), 109–138. https://doi.org/10.17428/rfn.v21i42.966
Issue
Vol. 21 No. 42 (2009): julio-diciembre, 2009
Section
Papers

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